Financial liberalization, prudential supervision, and the onset of banking crises

We examine what is perceived as one of the main culprits in the occurrence of banking crises: financial liberalization. As is typically argued, if liberalization is accompanied by insufficient prudential supervision of the banking sector, it will result in excessive risk taking by financial intermediaries and a subsequent crisis. Having evaluated the empirical validity of this hypothesis, we conclude that such a development is, at worse, only a medium run threat to the health of the banking sector. We find that a more immediate danger is the loss of monopoly power that liberalization typically entails. We base our conclusions on an empirical investigation of a panel-probit model of the occurrence of banking crises using macro-economic, institutional and political data. D 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classification: G21; G28; F36